Влад Орлов

за 6 дней Они 400 визы дали только Европу.

I sit and did some calculations and analysis for EU. According to my calculations until now (till 13800 CN and issued visas 9052).
Issue Rate – 65%
AP – 6%
No show up (those may get interviewed) – 5.5%
Refuse Rate – 5.5%
No show up (those won’t do interview) Rate – 18%
In my below calculations I didn’t use Refuse Rate – 5.5% and No show up (those won’t do interview) Rate – 18%, only used Issue rate 65%, AP (as 5% because I believe all AP won’t get cleared) and No show up (those may get interviewed) as 5%. In brief I took a issue rate as 75%.
As per calculations – Derivative and growth rate was calculated as 2.35.
Until 13800 (end of March) and also 6 months period;
Issue – 9052 +10% (AP and No show up) = 9052+1400 (14000 total w/t derivative) = appr. 10450. Now let’s look at predictions for next 6 months period.
April
Total 2150 cases got current in which 555 cases were submitted or you may call it real cases.
Total number of selectee = 555×2.35=1304 people
Total number of issued=1304×0.75=978 (including predicted AP and now show ups). I took this as 1000 for April and
May so 10450+1000+1000=12450 so far.
JUNE (Prediction)
18050+3250=21300 CN
Net case numbers = 3250/3.82 (hole, no response etc.) = 850 CN
Total number of selectee = 850×2.35 (D.R) = 2000 people
Total # of issued = 2000×0.75=1500 people
JULY (Prediction)
21300+3250 = 24550 CN and Total # of issued = 2000×0.75=1500 people
AUGUST (Prediction)
24550+3250 = 27800 CN and Total # of issued = 2000×0.75=1500 people
SEPTEMBER (Prediction)
27800+3250 = 31050 CN and Total # of issued = 2000×0.75=1500 people
In conclusion, until June we have 12450 issued visas and end of DV2018 there will be 18450.
These are my predictions as per my calculations that’s why don’t take it seriously, the real one may turn out to be different.
Have a good day!

Цитата
Влад Орлов пишет: Не подскажите 8609 визы до какого кейса дали?

до февраля был так: